Achieving net-zero by 2050 more difficult than ever
That global warming will be limited to 1.5°C in 2050 is less likely than ever. To reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, carbon dioxide emissions would need to be halved by 2030. According to DNV's new Energy Transition Outlook, this will not even happen until 2050.
When DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2030 was presented on Wednesday, the classification society's CEO Remy Eriksson stated that the transition to fossil-free energy is only in its infancy.
- The world's carbon dioxide emissions will reach their peak next year. Emissions from the use of oil will reach their peak in 2025 and emissions from natural gas in 2027. But it will still take 27 years before green energy use goes from today's 20% to 52%. In 2050, the world will therefore be far from fossil-free.
Emissions will decrease, but not at a sufficient rate. To reach net zero in 2050, they would have had to be halved by 2030, but by then the emissions will only be 4% lower than today. DNV calculates that emissions will decrease 1% annually until 2050. By then, hydrogen will account for 5% of the global energy mix – to reach the Paris Agreement's goals, hydrogen would need to account for approximately 15% of the world's energy needs.
But there is hope. More recently, several political decisions have been made that hasten the transition. DNV mentions The US Inflation Reduction Act, which means that the US invests USD 240 billion in green investments. They also mention the EU's green deal, REPowerEU and the Fit for 55 package, which makes Europe's net zero goal more realistic. This affects, among other things, shipping, which must now prepare for a faster transition due to the inclusion in the EU's emissions trading system EU ETS. The IMO's sharpened climate goals are also doing their part.
From being almost entirely oil-based today, shipping's fuel mix in 2050 will consist of 84% low or carbon-free fuels and 8% natural gas (mostly LNG). Ammonia will account for 36% of low or carbon-free fuels, e-fuels for 19% and while biofuels account for around 25%. However, electrification in shipping will be limited. According to DNV, only 4% of the fleet will go electric.
