Green ammonia global could decarbonize 60 % of global shipping

Green ammonia can cover large parts of global shipping's fuel needs in 2050. By targeting the the top 100 fuel ports, over 60% of global shipping could be decarbonized. This according to new research from the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford.

Green ammonia, made by electrolysing water with renewable electricity, has for some years been one of the most talked about alternative fuels that could quickly decarbonise the shipping industry. However, there are also major uncertainties with ammonia, for example as to how and where to invest to create the necessary infrastructure to deliver an efficient, viable fuel supply chain.

To guide investors, researchers at the University of Oxford have studied this and developed a modeling framework. This combines combines a fuel demand model, future trade scenarios and a spatial optimisation model for green ammonia production, storage, and transport, to find the best locations to meet future demand for shipping fuel. 

So what results did the researchers come up with? Well, for one thing, it's obviously going to be expensive – roughly $2 trillion will need to be invested to transition to a green ammonia fuel supply chain by 2050. And the industry will be regionalized; green ammonia will be primarily produced near the equator in countries with abundant land and high solar potential and then transported to regional centers of marine fuel demand. The greatest investment need, and opportunity, is in Australia which is projected to become the main supplier for Asian markets. Large production clusters are also predicted in Chile (to supply South America), California (to supply the western United States), North West Africa (to meet European demand) and the southern Arabian Peninsula (to meet local demand and parts of southern Asia).

According to the researchers' modelling, there will be a large inequality in the demand for green ammonia fuel among the 1360 ports studied. This means that a significant part of shipping can be switched to fossil-free if you target the largest ports first. If green ammonia is made available in the 50 ports in the world with the greatest fuel demand, then almost half of the demand (45.7%) for green ammonia could be met. With the 100 largest ports, the corresponding figure is 62 percent.

Regionally, the inequalities may be even greater. In, for example, Oceania, North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia, over 60% of fuel demand can be met by targeting the top 10 regional fuel ports.

As production tends to be clustered relatively close to the equator, less than 10% (2%) of ammonia is made at an absolute latitude greater than 30 (40) degrees. As a consequence of this, some regions produce very little ammonia themselves—Europe, for instance, consumes about 9% of ammonia demand in both scenarios, but produces less than 0.05% of the global supply.

To the report