What if a global ban on fossil fuels were introduced by 2035? Could shipping manage to transition in such a short time? A pre-study by Lighthouse and the Swedish Transport Administration has explored this hypothetical question.

When the world’s pharmaceutical developers were put to the test during the COVID-19 pandemic, they achieved something most observers initially thought impossible. In less than a year, several effective vaccines against COVID‑19 were developed — something that normally takes many years. However, this required total global focus, with massive investments, parallel studies, rapid clinical trials, and revised approval procedures.

Could the same happen if the entire world were forced to transition to fossil-free energy within what we would consider an unreasonably short timeframe? The pre-study Fossil Stop 2035 is based on a hypothetical scenario in which a climate-related crisis in 2025 forces the world to implement a complete ban on fossil fuels by 2035.

“The purpose is not only to show how shipping could transition by 2035, but also to identify areas where we need deeper knowledge. This is a pre-study, and there are naturally questions where we are uncertain and need more insight,” says Sven Borén of Blekinge Institute of Technology, one of the report’s authors.

The issues required thorough discussion, and a central part of the study was a “backcasting workshop” in a World Café format. More than thirty participants from industry, public authorities, and academia gathered to jointly map the biggest challenges, possible solutions, and lay the foundation for an initial transition roadmap.

A number of challenges were identified, including the need to rapidly expand renewable energy, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the difficulty of transitioning multiple sectors simultaneously. Participants also highlighted geopolitical uncertainties, the limited capacity of shipyards for vessel retrofits, and the importance of behavioral changes and reduced energy use.

“Everyone agreed that the journey toward fossil-free operations must begin with clear decisions at the highest level—and those decisions must not be reversible,” says Sven Borén.

“That’s perhaps not groundbreaking in itself, but it clearly shows how difficult the transition is. It won’t happen under current market conditions. The playing field must change. I think that hasn’t been sufficiently clear in earlier roadmaps toward fossil freedom, for example in the energy sector.”

So, is it possible to transition shipping by 2035? According to the pre-study, the answer is yes.

“A lot comes down to reaching broad agreements, much like in other major societal challenges, such as during the pandemic. Many believe the technology already exists. The challenge is getting it deployed and scaled. For example, ships need to be retrofitted for new fuels or equipped with sails. At the same time, shipyards risk becoming a bottleneck—their capacity must increase significantly. The same applies to the production of renewable fuels, where rapid and extensive scale-up is crucial. The study shows that it is possible to scale up production to meet fuel demand, though perhaps not for all sectors.”

“This is where a systems perspective becomes essential. Several industries are competing for the same resources. Aviation, for example, will require large volumes of fuel.”

In terms of the systems perspective, there has recently been much discussion about a trend toward regionalization. What were the findings in this area?

“At its core, it’s about which transports are considered necessary. Many argue that cruise traffic and leisure travel, for example, are not priorities,” says Sven Borén.

“But perhaps they could continue. If the same requirements are imposed on the cruise industry as on the rest of shipping, it could also function within a more sustainable system.”

Political decisions, stronger policy instruments, stricter regulations, and increased cooperation—many of the enablers identified in the pre-study are frequently mentioned in discussions about the shipping transition. What does this study add?

“It more clearly demonstrates that the transition is actually possible—that there is a concrete path forward. Often, you hear: ‘that’s probably doable, but we’ll deal with it later.’ The sense that we need to act now rarely emerges. Instead, we point out which actors need to start immediately. At the political level, this means making difficult decisions that go beyond voter considerations in upcoming elections, to steer development in the right direction.”

The pre-study Fossil Stop 2035 (No more fossil fuel from 2035) was authored by:
Sven Borén (Blekinge Institute of Technology)
Hampus Berg Mårtensson (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute)
Jonas Flodén (University of Gothenburg)
Per Tunell (Soya Group / Wallenius Marine)
Linda Styhre (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute)
Johan Woxenius (University of Gothenburg)
Karl Jivén (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute)
Victor Eriksson Stien (University of Gothenburg)
Henry Hammarström (Gotland Tech Development)
Erik Fridell (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute)