Trump’s tariffs were intended to boost American industry and reduce dependence on foreign markets. Yet the outcome appears to have been the opposite. A new pre-study conducted within the Swedish Transport Administration’s industry programme Sustainable Shipping, managed by Lighthouse, shows that Sweden’s containerised cargo volumes to the United States increased during the first year of the tariffs. This occurred despite significant uncertainty and major disruptions in global supply chains.

US trade tariffs have created uncertainty in global trade and forced companies to adapt to constantly changing rules. However, Swedish maritime exports to the United States appear to have withstood the pressure better than many had feared. The pre-study The Impact of US Tariffs on Maritime Supply Chains with Swedish Imports and Exports, based on interviews with exporting companies, shipping lines, ports, freight forwarders and industry organisations, presents an unexpected picture: in several cases, cargo volumes to the US have been maintained, and in some segments even increased despite the tariffs.

“Trump’s idea was that the tariffs would benefit domestic production, but the tariff costs are not absorbed within the supply chain. Instead, they are passed on to the end customer, namely the American consumer. Higher costs lead to higher prices,” says Emmelie Gustafsson, researcher at RISE and one of the report’s authors.

Since Trump’s tariffs are not a completed policy measure but an ongoing phenomenon that continues to evolve, it is difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about their effects. The findings nonetheless show that the tariffs have created volatile and uneven cargo flows, with periods of so-called front-loading.

“Before the tariffs took effect, companies wanted to ship as much as possible. Ships filled up quickly, port terminals came under heavy pressure and transport volumes rose sharply.

Then, when demand declined, the opposite problem emerged: ships and terminals became underutilised. The situation kept shifting back and forth. Companies and customers had to deal with repeated announcements of new tariff rates, exemptions and postponed decisions.”

Companies responded with different strategies.

“Some stayed calm and waited things out, while others acted more aggressively. The most common approach, however, was to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude to see how the situation developed,” says Emmelie Gustafsson.

The report describes how uncertainty has become as significant a challenge as the tariffs themselves. Companies have been forced to devote more resources to market monitoring, customs management and legal matters. Logistics decisions that were previously handled by a single department now require coordination across multiple functions.

“There has been significantly more work for both logistics and customs departments. More parts of the organisation are involved in the same business transaction,” one port representative notes in the report.

Sustainability efforts have also been affected. Rerouted cargo flows, changes in transport choices and uneven capacity utilisation have led to increased emissions and inefficient resource use during certain periods. Uncertainty regarding future trade conditions has also encouraged companies to make more short-term decisions, potentially slowing investments in long-term sustainable solutions.

“Ideally, transport systems should operate with smooth and balanced flows. The tariffs have made them uneven and inefficient, which naturally affects emissions and other sustainability-related factors,” says Emmelie Gustafsson.

The report The Impact of US Tariffs on Maritime Supply Chains with Swedish Imports and Exports was authored by:
Emmelie Gustafsson (RISE), Sara Rogerson (RISE), and Johan Woxenius (University of Gothenburg).