The world has become harder to predict. Wars, trade conflicts, GPS interference and a growing shadow fleet are creating new risks for shipping. At the same time, shipping’s transition towards climate neutrality continues, but under increasingly uncertain global conditions. Shipping companies, ports and authorities must now prepare for several possible future scenarios at once. Welcome to the Lighthouse Maritime Outlook 2026.

Summary

In February, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”. A few days later, Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Since then, conflicting reports about blockades, ceasefires, attacks and which vessels have been allowed to pass have created considerable uncertainty. Merchant vessels have been attacked, shipping companies have slowed bookings, and vessels, including Swedish ones, have been left stranded in the area. One day one thing applies, the next day something else.

The conflicts surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea show just how vulnerable global trade becomes when a small number of strategic shipping routes are disrupted. Detours mean longer journeys, higher costs and greater emissions. At the same time, there is a growing need for more resilient supply chains, with larger inventories, alternative routes and a broader range of suppliers.

Efforts to combat Russia’s shadow fleet have also intensified over the past year. The EU, the UK and the Baltic Sea coastal states have expanded sanctions against hundreds of vessels, tightened inspections and begun scrutinising vessels’ insurance, flag registrations and ownership structures much more closely. Several vessels have been boarded, detained or temporarily seized by Sweden and several neighbouring countries during 2025 and 2026.

At the same time, GPS interference in the region has increased. It occurs mainly in two forms. Jamming blocks the GPS signal, while spoofing involves transmitting false signals that cause navigation systems to display an incorrect position.

Geopolitical uncertainty is also affecting the green transition. Uncertainty surrounding the IMO’s global climate regulations, combined with a declining willingness to pay for green transport, is prompting shipping companies to turn to proven solutions. At the same time, orders for vessels designed to run on alternative fuels are falling. In the first half of 2026, 137 alternative-fuel vessels were ordered, compared with 155 during the same period in 2025, a decrease of 11.6 per cent. By comparison, total vessel orders increased from 1,101 in the first half of 2025 to 1,481 in the first half of 2026. The share of alternative-fuel vessel orders has therefore fallen from 14 to 9 per cent.

Perhaps most striking of all is that orders for methanol-powered vessels have almost disappeared, falling from 40 to just 2. LNG still dominates, with 73 orders, while LPG/ethane increased from 17 to 55.

When it comes to alternative fuels, there is no “silver bullet”. Methanol has reached a relatively high level of technical maturity but continues to struggle with price and availability. Ammonia has taken steps towards commercial use, while the risks associated with toxicity, bunkering and emissions have become clearer. Hydrogen is still largely confined to demonstration projects and remains costly, while electrification is primarily suited to shorter routes. At the same time, more unexpected alternatives, such as aluminium and nuclear power, are also being explored.

For now, energy efficiency is delivering some of the greatest progress towards fossil-free shipping. According to DNV, the global fleet’s energy demand could be reduced by up to 16 per cent by 2030 through measures including more efficient hulls and propellers, route optimisation and lower speeds. Wind-assisted propulsion could reduce fuel consumption even further.

Meanwhile, shipping is changing rapidly through AI, automation and digitalisation. This places new demands on seafarers’ skills, while traditional expertise must also be preserved. Ensuring a sufficient supply of skilled workers is therefore a strategic issue. In Sweden, there are encouraging signs in the number of applications to some maritime education programmes, but the industry needs both to recruit more people and to persuade more of them to remain at sea.

All this is happening at a time when Swedish transport research is receiving fewer resources. The government reduced research and innovation funding in the infrastructure plan from the SEK 7.6 billion proposed by the Swedish Transport Administration to SEK 4 billion. As a result, the Swedish Transport Administration has, for example, been forced to cancel its usual autumn call for proposals under its maritime research portfolio. This creates a clear contradiction: while shipping is expected to manage the green transition, digitalisation, security and skills supply, the resources available for the research and innovation needed to help address these challenges are shrinking.

In short: Over the past year, shipping has not been shaped by one major change, but by several at once. The climate challenge remains, but it must now be addressed alongside war, security threats, geopolitical uncertainty, digitalisation and skills shortages. The major challenge is therefore no longer simply to make shipping fossil-free, but also to make it safe and resilient in an increasingly unpredictable world.

Lighthouse Maritime Outlook 2026 (in swedish)