The socio-economic costs of the Swedish transport sector are reviewed annually by the Swedish Transport Analysis Agency. This year’s report concludes that shipping now largely bears its own socio-economic costs.

The degree of internalization—that is, the extent to which a mode of transport covers its own socio-economic costs—has become a central metric in transport policy. According to the Swedish Transport Analysis Agency, the internalization rate for shipping is now around 90 percent, corresponding to approximately SEK 0.01 per tonne-kilometre. This means that the sector largely pays for its climate emissions, accident risks, and other external effects.

Since 2016, climate impact has been the dominant external cost for shipping. As these costs were revised upwards, the internalization rate declined. However, the inclusion of shipping in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has reversed this trend and constitutes the decisive change behind the sector’s increased internalization rate. From 2024, the Transport Analysis Agency considers part of shipping emissions to be internalized through the system, and from 2026 the entire cost of carbon dioxide emissions is regarded as covered. In practice, this means that larger vessels subject to the EU ETS increasingly pay for their climate emissions.

At the same time, smaller vessels and certain segments remain outside the emissions trading system, making their climate costs more difficult to internalize. In addition, there is insufficient knowledge about several other external effects, such as discharges to water, impacts on marine ecosystems, and erosion.

The Transport Analysis Agency also points to the need for more detailed studies, including analyses of marginal costs related to pilotage and accidents in shipping. Without better data, comparisons between different transport modes risk being misleading.

From a broader perspective, shipping appears to be a relatively efficient mode of transport from a socio-economic standpoint. Unlike road transport—where heavy traffic, particularly in urban areas, generates substantial non-internalized costs—shipping is approaching a situation in which it largely covers its own costs.

Looking ahead, the question is not only how the degree of internalization can be further improved, but also in which contexts shipping represents the most efficient alternative. With increasing demands for sustainability and efficient use of resources, this issue is likely to become increasingly central in future transport policy.

To the report