The technology is there. But demand is lacking, investment is stalling and regulations are falling behind. Add geopolitical uncertainty, shake thoroughly, and you have a cocktail that could leave shipping missing its climate targets by a wide margin. According to a new report from University College London, shipping is further from meeting the IMO’s 2030 target than ever before.

Under the IMO’s climate strategy, at least 5 per cent of the energy used in international shipping by 2030 should come from fuels or energy sources with zero or near-zero greenhouse gas emissions. This is one of the interim targets on the path towards the IMO’s long-term goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping by or around 2050.

Reaching that target would require the equivalent of around 600 large container ships to be powered by such fuels within just four years. But this year’s Climate Action in Shipping 2026, produced by the UCL Energy Institute and published by the Getting to Zero Coalition, concludes that progress is nowhere near the pace required.

“Orders for vessels capable of running on zero-emission fuels have declined. Demand signals from cargo owners have weakened and capital flows have levelled off. Much of this can be traced back to a single factor: uncertainty. The opportunity to establish clear and long-term regulations must be seized,” Dan Ioschpe, Brazil’s Climate High-Level Champion for COP30, writes in the report’s foreword.

At the same time, progress is being made on the technology front. Over the past year, the first large ammonia-powered vessels have undergone sea trials. The first ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering operation has been completed, and the number of ports offering methanol bunkering has increased from 19 to 29. Deliveries of methanol-capable vessels have also accelerated, and the methanol-capable fleet has more than tripled.

But that is where the progress stops.

According to the report, the clearest setback came in autumn 2025, when the IMO failed to adopt the Net-Zero Framework, the global regulatory framework intended to provide the industry with long-term certainty for its transition. The consequences are now being felt throughout the value chain. Companies have postponed investments, orders for zero-emission vessels have declined and capital flows have slowed. Perhaps most strikingly, orders for methanol-capable vessels have almost dried up, falling from 40 to just two. Overall, the share of vessels capable of using scalable zero-emission fuels has fallen from 9.5 to 5.7 per cent.

Cargo owners are hesitating too. Companies’ willingness to pay a premium for climate-friendly shipping has fallen sharply. According to the report, the share expecting to be willing to pay more within five years has dropped from 65 to 45 per cent.

Despite this, the report’s tone is not one of resignation.

The authors argue that the transition can still catch up and meet future targets. As noted, the technology is increasingly in place. Production capacity for e-methanol and e-ammonia is growing. What is missing are clear political signals that reduce uncertainty and give shipping companies, investors and cargo owners the confidence to commit fully to the transition.

Read the report