Travel and Transport became cheaper while electrification slowed down. In its annual review of Sweden’s transport policy objectives, the Transport Analysis (Trafikanalys) states that the transport sector's 2030 climate goal is now very difficult to achieve.

Following the reduction in the biofuel blending mandate (reduktionsplikten) and fuel taxes in January 2024, Sweden now has some of the lowest fuel prices in the EU. At the same time, the transition to sustainable transport is slowing. For the first time, the share of rechargeable cars in new car sales decreased compared to the previous year – a clear shift in the trend of fleet electrification. The lowered biofuel mandate has also caused a sharp increase in road traffic emissions during 2024. This makes it very difficult (even though the mandate is set to increase again from July 1, 2025) to reach the national milestone of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport by 70 percent by 2030 compared to 2010.

"About three-quarters of the time between 2010 and 2030 has now passed, and in 2024, emissions were only 23 percent lower than in 2010," says Anders Brandén Klang, project manager for The Transport Analysis Agency's annual follow-up on the transport policy goals.

As in previous years, The Transport Analysis Agency evaluates the state of the transport system using 15 indicators. Regarding transport research and innovation, the report repeats the exact wording from the past two years:

“Sweden is a leader in transport research and innovation, but performance varies by mode. Road transport, vehicle technology, and fuels dominate research, investment, and venture capital.”

Other highlights include Swedish initiatives to promote “physically active” travel – such as the Walking Centre project and the Cycling Billion investment. Research has shown that walking and cycling are associated with many health benefits and reduced mortality risk.

And what about shipping?
The Transport Analysis Agency notes that, as of 2024, both shipping and aviation have been included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). While this is expected to have a positive effect on the Swedish transport system in the long run, as the requirements will gradually tighten, no measurable impact has been seen yet.

The Transport Analysis Agency also observes that energy use per unit of transport work has decreased mainly within road traffic in recent years. At a system level, this has improved the competitiveness of road freight transport. Today, more than half of freight transport work is done by road, while the more energy-efficient modes – rail and maritime – have continued to lose market share since the adoption of the national transport policy goals.

To the report