A new report from the International Chamber of Shipping shows that shipping companies are no longer primarily concerned about technical challenges or a lack of green fuels. Instead, the biggest threat to the sector’s green transition is growing uncertainty in the world around them. And when uncertainty increases, many stakeholders choose proven solutions over new ones.

The ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2025–2026, based on responses from 185 senior decision-makers across the global shipping industry, paints a picture of a sector that still wants to decarbonize, but is doing so with considerably more caution than just a few years ago.

This is largely due to geopolitical instability. But the issue extends beyond wars and conflicts. The report describes geopolitics as a “risk multiplier” affecting everything from cybersecurity threats and trade flows to investment decisions and climate policy. The war in the Middle East, insecurity in the Red Sea, sanctions, trade tariffs, and growing rivalry between major powers have created a more fragmented global landscape. For shipping companies, this means longer trade routes, changing trade patterns, and more difficult investment decisions.

“Global shipping is entering a period where uncertainty is no longer an interruption to business, it is the backdrop against which decisions are made. The findings of this year’s Barometer are clear: geopolitical instability has become a defining risk multiplier, influencing everything from market conditions and operational planning to investment decisions and the pace of the energy transition. In response, industry leaders are taking an increasingly pragmatic approach, prioritising resilience, adaptability and proven solutions”, says ICS Secretary General Thomas Kazakos in a press release.

So, which proven solutions are companies choosing? In the Barometer’s dedicated fuels section, LNG (liquefied natural gas) and biofuels emerge as the most viable fuel options for the coming decade, closely followed by heavy fuel oil (HFO) used in combination with emissions-reduction technologies.

According to the report, the fact that HFO continues to rank highly illustrates the strong demand for reliable and readily available solutions. Without clearer climate regulations, the transition risks being driven more by caution than innovation.

A key factor is the delay surrounding the IMO’s global climate framework, the Net-Zero Framework. When the vote on the regulatory package was postponed, many companies opted to wait. Nearly 23 percent of respondents reported pausing their decarbonization plans, while a further 16 percent said they had modified them. Although more than half stated that they had not changed their plans, this group also includes companies that had always intended to wait for new regulations before deciding on a specific pathway.

The financing of the transition is also affected by global uncertainty. Shipping companies view public investment as essential for building infrastructure for alternative fuels, electrification, and new energy systems. At the same time, many are uncertain whether governments will maintain long-term support programmes.

A similar uncertainty surrounds private capital. Investors remain interested in green shipping, but higher interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory uncertainty are making it more difficult for many projects to attract financing.

“Maintaining progress will require regulatory clarity, global alignment, and continued cooperation between industry and governments. The Report reinforces the importance of stable international frameworks that support investment and provide confidence for long-term decision making. At a time of increasing fragmentation, maintaining a consistent global approach is essential for shipping, supply chains, and the wider world economy”, says Thomas A. Kazakos.

Read the Barometer