The willingness to pay extra for green shipping has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. At the same time, stalled IMO negotiations, uncertainty surrounding future climate regulations, and an increasingly turbulent geopolitical environment are making shipping companies hesitant to commit to investments and long-term decarbonization efforts. This is one of the key findings in Boston Consulting Group's (BCG) annual survey on the maritime industry's transition to net-zero emissions.

Just a few years ago, the message was clear. The green transition was expected to drive the next major investment wave in shipping. Shipowners ordered methanol-powered vessels, ports prepared for alternative fuels, and cargo owners were willing to pay a premium for climate-friendly transport. That is no longer the case. According to BCG's survey, based on responses from 125 decision-makers in the logistics and transport sector, the willingness to pay for low-carbon shipping services has dropped sharply in just one year. And buyers do not expect the situation to improve. The share of respondents who believe they will be willing to pay more for green shipping within the next five years has fallen from 65 percent to 45 percent.

There are three main reasons behind the declining willingness to pay.

First, uncertainty about future climate regulations has increased. Nearly six out of ten cargo owners state that their investments in low-carbon transport are primarily driven by regulatory requirements. With implementation of the IMO's Net Zero Framework delayed following last autumn's failed negotiations, the incentive to pay a premium today has weakened as well.

Second, geopolitical developments have shifted corporate priorities. Wars, trade conflicts, and economic uncertainty have pushed climate ambitions down the agenda, while cost control, energy security, and supply chain resilience have become more pressing concerns. Nearly one-third of transport buyers say that increased uncertainty has led them to scale back investments in low-carbon transport solutions.

The third explanation is that fewer companies see a clear business case. In just one year, the share of transport buyers who believe that zero-emission shipping can generate economic benefits has fallen from 47 percent to 39 percent. At the same time, confidence in green transport as a competitive advantage has declined from 65 percent to 52 percent. For many companies, the climate premium no longer appears as self-evident as it once did.

Wars, tariffs, inflation, shifting trade patterns, and regulatory uncertainty have effectively created a perfect storm for the maritime industry. After all, who is willing to invest billions in new technology when no one knows what the world—or the regulatory landscape—will look like five years from now?

Despite this, the report does not point to a collapse of the shipping industry's transition. Rather, it suggests that the sector is changing strategy. Instead of placing all bets on alternative fuels, many companies are now focusing on energy efficiency, digitalization, and technical improvements that can reduce emissions immediately. Ships are being optimized to consume less fuel, routes are being planned more efficiently, and new technologies are being deployed to cut energy use onboard.

The report concludes that shipping is entering a new phase. After years of ambitious targets, pilot projects, and bold promises, the focus is no longer solely on environmental performance but also on economic viability. Most stakeholders still want the transition to continue, but fewer are willing to shoulder the additional costs.

For shipowners, this means it is no longer enough to offer green alternatives and hope that customers will pay a premium. In short, optimism alone is no longer sufficient. The industry is entering a more demanding phase in which every investment must be justified on commercial grounds. The winners of the future will not necessarily be those who talk most about green shipping, but those who succeed in making it financially sustainable.

To the report