The world's shipping companies are investing billions in new vessels, new engines and new fuels. But which fuel will dominate in ten, twenty or thirty years' time? According to DNV's latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, technology is no longer shipping's biggest challenge. Uncertainty is.

It is starting to sound a little repetitive. Year after year, DNV's Maritime Forecast to 2050 has delivered the same message: do not put all your eggs in one fuel basket. In this year's edition, the tenth in the series, that message is taken a step further. Uncertainty is now seen as the greatest threat to shipping's decarbonisation journey.

According to the classification society, this is largely due to the continued lack of clarity around the IMO's global climate regulations, while markets for low-carbon fuels have yet to establish the commercial conditions needed for a rapid transition.

“The strongest message of this year’s report is clearly that dealing with uncertainty and preparing for multiple possible futures remains one of the most important strategic capabilities” writes DNV Maritime CEO Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria in the report's foreword.
She continues:
“By stress-testing strategies across scenarios, shipowners can identify pathways that balance cost, risk, and flexibility, avoiding decisions that may perform well under one outcome but expose the fleet under others.”

Much of the debate around shipping's transition focuses on alternative fuels. Yet another key message from the report is that the most effective climate measure available today has little to do with fuel choice. The greatest gains can be achieved simply by using less energy.

Through better hull designs, more efficient propellers, wind-assisted propulsion, optimised routing and lower sailing speeds, DNV estimates that the global fleet's energy consumption could be reduced by up to 16% by 2030 and by 25% or more by 2050. Lower energy demand not only cuts emissions today, but also makes tomorrow's expensive green fuels significantly more affordable to use.

That will be important. Elsewhere in the report, DNV warns of fierce competition for future green fuels. Shipping will have to compete with aviation, industry, road transport and the energy sector for the same resources. Biofuels, which today appear to be relatively cost-effective climate solutions, are likely to become increasingly scarce as demand grows.

Global shipping currently consumes around 280 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of fuel annually. That corresponds to approximately 3% of global energy use and around 10% of total transport sector energy consumption.

At the same time, DNV estimates that global availability of low-carbon fuels could reach no more than 270 Mtoe by 2030. Shipping's demand for such fuels is expected to be between 4 and 22 Mtoe by then, increasing to 33-185 Mtoe by 2050. In a scenario where the world reaches net-zero emissions, total cross-sector demand for low-carbon fuels could exceed 2,200 Mtoe by 2050. For shipping, the challenge is therefore not only to transition away from fossil fuels but also to secure access to fuels that an increasing number of sectors will be competing for.

According to DNV, however, shipping may have a slight head start thanks to the substantial wave of investments in LNG-fuelled vessels. LNG is not a renewable fuel, but today's LNG fleet and bunkering infrastructure could serve as a platform for future fuels such as bio-LNG and e-LNG. As a result, many of the investments already made may continue to provide value even in a future with significantly lower emissions.

Read DNV's Maritime Forecast to 2050